400,000 COVID-19 Deaths: What will the Future Look like?

By Vivien F. '21

Nearly one year after the United States confirmed the first COVID-19 case on Jan 21, 2020, the death toll has amassed 400,000. It took 12 weeks for the death toll to rise from 200,000 to 300,000, but only five weeks for deaths to increase to 400,000. Currently, the US has the highest death toll for COVID-19, amounting to 20% of total deaths. Many factors have contributed to the rapid increase in COVID, and political polarization has not helped. 

The stark divide between the Republican and Democratic parties has split Americans over the legitimacy and urgency of the pandemic. Large-scale arguments over mask-wearing, restrictions, and job shutdowns have caused many to view the pandemic as a political matter rather than a health issue.  The actions taken by leaders of both political parties especially Trump accentuated the polarization of the two parties and seemingly eliminated a middle ground. Currently, many still refuse to wear a mask properly, if even at all. As the death toll continues to rise, the threat of COVID-19 has grown more pressing, and people have begun to play a blame game, throwing those they disagree with under the bus and then excusing others' behaviors. For example many blame others for travelling when they themselves are not adhering to other regulations such as attending large gatherings. As a country, the integration of large scale politics into a desperate health matter made it hard to settle on proper restrictions and an effective course of action in the early months of the pandemic. Luckily, more evidence of the virus has seemed to increase mask-wearing and compliance to regulations. Yet, COVID-19 cases still only seem to be growing. 

Unfortunately, the turn in the seasons only exacerbates the pandemic. Colder weather hinders the degradation of infectious viruses in general, and COVID- 19 is no exception. Moreover, poorly ventilated dry air, which is more commonly found indoors in the winter, causes favorable conditions for viral stability. Early experimentation regarding COVID-19 showed a negative correlation between infection rate and UV light. This result indicates a robust ability for the virus to thrive in cooler, less sunny environments. Although there appears to be a strong relationship between colder weather and an increase in COVID-19, it is hard to determine how much of it is from temperature rather than a decrease in precautions around the holiday season. 

For many people, the holiday season is a time to celebrate, and despite the presence of COVID-19 this year, traveling, family gatherings, and parties still took place. After a long year of video chats and socially distancing, families finally got to see each other in person during the Thanksgiving and winter breaks. Although many tried to take precautions, these events contributed to an increase in COVID-19 cases nationally. According to USA Today, new cases began to climb about seven days after Thanksgiving and trended upwards for two additional weeks. This upward trend could be due to increased gatherings. About a third of Americans admitted to being at a Thanksgiving dinner, with an average of nine people attending from outside of their household. Similar patterns were seen closer to Christmas, while the average gathering size was greater- approximately 11 people. After Christmas, COVID-19 cases only increased more rapidly.  

Luckily, the new COVID-19 vaccine presents the possibility of an eventual return to a more normal society. After both doses of the vaccine, 95% of people will be protected from developing the virus and 100% of people will be protected from contracting severe disease. These numbers are promising, and despite the current spike, this vaccine holds hope. It is important to remember that even with the vaccine one can still spread COVID, so continuing to wear masks and socially distance is vital. As new variants of COVID-19 continue to be discovered, the transmission of the virus is likely to go through spikes and dips. But, at this point, it is best to follow rules and regulations and try your best to remain healthy.